WP 6 Validation of project products
WP 6 leader: Assoc. Prof. Dr. B. Veleva

Results from WP 6

Validation of project products

The validation of BgCWFS results consists of two types of analysis – comparison to observations at background AQ stations and AERONET sites, and model-intercomparison using products from the CAMS regional and global forecasts and from the EMEP-MSC-W simulations. Model performance is focused on surface concentrations (PM10, PM2.5, NO₂ and SO₂) and columnar parameters (AOD, NO₂_C and SO₂_C). The timeframe covers two months – August 2017 and February 2019, the spatial scale – two domains Balkan Peninsula and Bulgaria. The analysis is based on various statistical indicators and graphical visualizations - box plots, density distribution functions, scatterplots, and maps for the spatial distribution at surface level.

Examples of some results:

Mean monthly concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO₂ and SO₂ (µg/m³) in August 2017 and February 2019
OBS –observed at AQ stations in BG MOD – BgCWFS base case,
SAT – BgCWFS with satellite data assimilation

PM2.5  in August 2017: modelled vs observed concentrations for
a) Plovdiv, b) Sofia-Hipodruma and c) Kopitoto mountain station;
OBS, BgCWFS_sat, EMEP-model, CAMS-ENS (regional) model

AOD₅₅₀ in August 2017- box plots for observations (O) and BgCWFS-base case (M)
for 5 AERONET stations indicated by numbers from 1 to 5 on the map

PM10 [μgm^-3] monthly mean for August 2017:
a)BgCFWS_sat, b) CAMS-ECMWF, c) EMEP-model and d) CAMS-ENS regional

NO₂ [μgm^-3] monthly mean for February 2019: a) BgCFWS_sat and b) EMEP